德国中间保守派赢得大选，默茨料将出任总理
Friedrich Merz, a Conservative, Is Poised to Be Germany’s Next Chancellor
Germans voted for a change of leadership on Sunday, handing the most votes in a parliamentary election to centrist conservatives, with the far right in second, and rebuking the nation’s left-leaning government for its handling of the economy and immigration.
周日，德国人投票更换领导人，在议会选举中，中间保守派获得最多选票，极右翼位居第二，该结果是对该国左倾政府的经济和移民问题处理方式的指责。
The results almost certainly mean the country’s next chancellor will be Friedrich Merz, leader of the Christian Democrats. Returns posted early Monday morning indicated that he had a path to governing Germany with only one coalition partner, the relatively stable scenario that his party had hoped for.
选举结果几乎肯定意味着德国的下一任总理将是基督教民主联盟领袖弗里德里希·默茨。周一凌晨公布的选举结果显示，他有可能在只有一个执政伙伴的情况下治理德国，这是他的政党所希望的相对稳定的局面。
“We have won it,” Mr. Merz told supporters in Berlin on Sunday evening, promising to swiftly form a parliamentary majority to govern the country and restore strong German leadership in Europe.
“我们赢了，”周日晚间，默茨在柏林对支持者说，并承诺迅速在议会中形成多数席位以治理国家，恢复德国在欧洲的强大领导地位。
The election, which was held seven months ahead of schedule after the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular and long-troubled three-party coalition, will now become an essential part of the European response to President Trump’s new world order. It drew the highest voter turnout in decades.
在总理奥拉夫·朔尔茨不受欢迎且长期陷入困境的三党联合政府垮台后，这次选举提前七个月举行，现在将成为欧洲对特朗普总统的世界新秩序做出回应的重要组成部分。这是数十年来投票率最高的一次选举。
Mr. Merz, 69, has promised to crack down on migrants and slash taxes and business regulations in a bid to kick-start economic growth. He also vowed to bring a more assertive foreign policy to help Ukraine and stronger leadership in Europe at a moment when the new Trump administration has sowed anxiety by scrambling traditional alliances and embracing Russia.
现年69岁的默茨承诺打击移民，削减税收和商业法规，以推动经济增长。在特朗普新政府扰乱传统联盟、接纳俄罗斯的做法引发焦虑之际，他还誓言采取更强硬的外交政策来帮助乌克兰，并在欧洲发挥更强势的领导作用。
A businessman who has never served as a government minister, Mr. Merz was once seen as a potentially better counterpart for the American president than Mr. Scholz, but in the campaign’s final days he mused about whether the United States would remain a democracy under Mr. Trump. He strongly condemned what Germans saw as meddling by Trump administration officials on behalf of the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD.
默茨是一名从未担任过政府部长的商人，相比朔尔茨，他一度被认为是一个与美国总统更旗鼓相当的人物，但在竞选的最后几天，他谈到在特朗普的领导下美国是否仍将是一个民主国家。他强烈谴责了特朗普政府官员的所作所为，在德国人看来，那是为极右翼的德国选择党助选的干预行为。
“My top priority, for me, will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that we can gradually achieve real independence from the U.S.A.,” Mr. Merz said in a televised round-table after polls closed. “I would never have thought I’d be saying something like this on TV, but after last week’s comments from Donald Trump, it’s clear that this administration is largely indifferent to Europe’s fate, or at least to this part of it.”
“对我来说，我的首要任务是尽快加强欧洲，这样我们就能逐渐实现真正的独立于美国，”投票结束后，默茨在电视转播的圆桌会议上说。“我从来没有想过我会在电视上说这样的话，但在唐纳德·特朗普上周的言论之后，很明显，这届政府基本上对欧洲的命运漠不关心，或者至少对欧洲的这一部分漠不关心。”
Returns showed that Mr. Merz’s Christian Democrats and their sister party, the Christian Social Union, won just under 29 percent of the vote combined. It was a low share historically for the top party in a German election, and the second-lowest showing ever for Mr. Merz’s party in a chancellor election.
选举结果显示，默茨的基督教民主联盟及其姊妹党基督教社会联盟总共赢得了不到29%的选票。这是德国大选中支持率最高的政党的历史最低得票率，也是默茨所在政党在总理选举中得票率第二低的一次。
Both are signs of the multiplying fissures in the nation’s politics and the weaknesses of the centrist mainstream parties that have governed Germany for decades.
二者都表明，德国政治上的裂痕越来越大，以及统治德国数十年的中间派主流政党的软弱。
There was great suspense on Sunday evening about the coalition Mr. Merz would be able to assemble, but he was clearly hoping for a rerun of the centrist governments that ran Germany for much of former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s 16-year tenure: the Christian Democrats in the lead, with the Social Democrats as a lone junior partner.
周日晚上，人们对默茨能够组建什么样的联合政府充满焦虑，但他显然希望重现前总理默克尔那个执掌德国16年的中间派政府：基督教民主联盟领头，社会民主党是唯一的次要合作伙伴。
Near-final returns posted early on Monday morning suggested he might have squeaked it out — barely. They indicated that the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a pro-Russia splinter from the old German left, had fallen just short of the 5 percent support it needed to get into Parliament. That apparent failure — by a margin of less than 14,000 votes — would mean that only five parties would make it into the next Parliament. In that scenario, Mr. Merz’s party and the Social Democrats could form a majority with no other partners.
周一凌晨公布的接近最终结果显示，他可能勉强胜出。从结果来看，从德国旧左翼分裂出来的亲俄政党萨拉·瓦根内克特联盟的支持率略低于进入议会所需的5%。这一明显的失败——差距略小于1.4万张选票——意味着只有五个政党能够进入下一届议会。在这种情况下，默茨的政党和社会民主党可能在没有其他合作伙伴的情况下组成多数党。
Had another small party made it into Parliament, Mr. Merz would have been forced to find a third coalition partner. That could have led to another potentially unwieldy and unstable government for Germany, reconfigured but with some of the same vulnerabilities as the one that recently collapsed.
如果另一个小党进入议会，默茨将被迫寻找第三个联盟伙伴。这可能会导致德国出现又一个臃肿而不稳定的政府，虽然经过重组，但与最近垮台的政府存在一些同样的弱点。
Mr. Merz has promised never to join with the second-place finisher, the AfD, which routinely flirts with Nazi slogans and whose members have diminished the Holocaust and have been linked to plots to overthrow the government. But the returns showed that the AfD is a growing force in German politics, even if it fell short of its ambitions in this election.
默茨承诺绝不让排名第二的德国选择党加入，该党经常打出纳粹口号，其成员曾淡化纳粹大屠杀，并涉嫌推翻政府的阴谋。但选举结果显示，尽管德国选择党在这次选举中未能实现雄心，但它在德国政坛的影响力日益增强。
The AfD doubled its vote share from four years ago, largely by appealing to voters upset by the millions of refugees who entered the country over the last decade from the Middle East, Afghanistan, Ukraine and elsewhere. In the former East Germany, it finished first.
德国选择党获得的选票比四年前翻了一番，这在很大程度上是因为它吸引了对过去10年从中东、阿富汗、乌克兰和其他地方涌入德国的数百万难民感到不安的选民。该党在前东德地区的得票率居于首位。
Its vote share appeared to fall short of its high mark of support in the polls from a year ago, however. Many analysts had been expecting a stronger showing, after a sequence of events that elevated the party and its signature issue.
然而，它的得票率似乎低于一年前在民意调查中获得的最高支持率。在一系列事件提升了该党及其标志性议题的地位之后，许多分析人士原本预计它会有更强劲的表现。
The AfD received public support from Vice President JD Vance and the billionaire Trump adviser Elon Musk. It sought to make political gains out of a series of deadly attacks committed by migrants in recent months, including in the final days of the campaign.
德国选择党得到了美国副总统JD·万斯和特朗普顾问、亿万富翁马斯克的公开支持。该党试图从最近几个月（包括竞选最后几天）移民发动的一系列致命袭击中获得政治利益。
But that boon never materialized. Reaction to the recent attacks and the support from Trump officials may have even mobilized a late burst of support to Die Linke, the party of Germany’s far left, which campaigned on a pro-immigration platform, some voters suggested in interviews on Sunday.
但这种利好并未兑现。一些选民在周日接受采访时表示，对最近袭击事件的反应，以及特朗普官员的支持，甚至可能在最后激发了对极左政党德国左翼党的支持，该党以支持移民为竞选纲领。
For all of that movement, the most likely coalition partner for Mr. Merz appears to be the one analysts have predicted for months: Mr. Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats, even though they experienced a steep drop in support from four years ago.
尽管有这些动向，默茨最有可能的联盟伙伴似乎就是分析人士几个月来一直预测的——朔尔茨领导的中左翼社会民主党，尽管该党的支持率比四年前大幅下降。
Interviews and early returns suggested voters were angry at Mr. Scholz’s government over high grocery prices and inadequate wage growth, and polls suggested economic and migration issues topped voters’ minds.
采访和初步结果显示，选民对朔尔茨政府治下的高物价和工资增长不足感到愤怒，民调显示，经济和移民问题是选民最关心的问题。
Many voters, even those who backed the Christian Democrats, said they were not enthusiastic about Mr. Merz personally. But they hoped that he could forge a strong government to solve problems at home and abroad and keep Germany’s far right at bay.
许多选民，甚至是那些支持基督教民主联盟的选民，都说他们对默茨本人并不热衷。但他们希望他能组建一个强大的政府来解决国内外的问题，并遏制德国的极右翼势力。
“The biggest risk for Germany at the moment is that we will have an unstable majority,” said Felix Saalfeld, 32, a doctor in the eastern city of Dresden who voted for Mr. Merz’s Christian Democrats. “That’s why it’s best if the C.D.U./C.S.U. gets a lot of votes and we can somehow form a coalition with as few people as possible, even if it’s not my party.”
“德国目前最大的风险是，我们可能会拥有不稳定的多数派，”32岁的菲利克斯·萨尔菲尔德说。萨尔菲尔德是东部城市德累斯顿的一名医生，他把票投给了默茨的基督教民主联盟。“这就是为什么最好让基督教民主联盟和基督教社会联盟获得大量选票，我们就可以以某种方式，与尽可能少的人组成联盟，即使它们不是我的政党。”
Mr. Merz will seek to lead Europe in trade and security conflicts with the Trump administration, which has rapidly been reshuffling the United States’ global alliances. He is also likely to face a daunting task in trying to reinvigorate a slumping economy that has not grown, in real terms, for half a decade.
默茨将寻求在与特朗普政府的贸易和安全冲突中领导欧洲，特朗普政府正在迅速重组美国的全球联盟。默茨还可能面临一项艰巨的任务，那就是重振已经五年没有实际增长的低迷经济。
Voters said they would look to the next government to stoke growth and cushion the pain of post-pandemic inflation.
选民们表示，他们期望下届政府刺激经济增长，缓解大流行后通胀带来的痛苦。
“Everything is getting more expensive, and at the same time, wages are not rising,” said Rojin Yilmaz, 20, a trainee at Allianz in Aschaffenburg, a city where an immigrant with mental illness killed a toddler and an adult last month. Mr. Yilmaz voted for Die Linke.
“一切都变得越来越贵，但与此同时，工资却没有上涨，”20岁的罗金·伊尔马兹说。他是阿沙芬堡的安联公司的一名实习生。上个月，一名患有精神疾病的移民在阿沙芬堡杀死了一名幼儿和一名成年人。伊尔马兹把票投给了左翼党。
In interviews in Dresden, a bastion of support for the AfD, some voters said they had lost faith in mainstream parties to address immigration and other issues.
在德累斯顿接受采访的一些选民表示，他们对主流政党解决移民和其他问题的能力失去了信心。德累斯顿是德国选择党的堡垒。
“I voted for the AfD,” said Andreas Mühlbach, 70. “It is the only alternative that is able to change things here.”
“我投了德国选择党一票，”70岁的安德烈亚斯·梅尔巴赫说。“这是唯一能够改变现状的选择。”
With support for the AfD on the rise, Martin Milner, 59, an educator and musician in Potsdam who split his ticket between the Greens and Die Linke, said he hopes Germany’s defensive democracy holds fast against the right-wing threat.
59岁的波茨坦教育家和音乐家马丁·米尔纳表示，随着德国选择党支持率的上升，他希望处于守势的德国民主能够抵挡住右翼的威胁。米尔纳将选票投给了绿党和德国左翼党。
“I’m hoping that this system will show itself to be resilient enough,” Mr. Milner said, “that it can manage the problems we have without drifting to one extreme or the other.”
“我希望这个系统能够显示出足够的韧性，”米尔纳说，“它能够解决我们面临的问题，而不会滑向一个极端或另一个极端。”
