特朗普政策动摇美股，中欧主要股市受益
Trump’s Moves Are Boosting Stocks … Overseas
President Trump has promised to create an age of American exceptionalism with policies that put the United States first, and ahead of other nations.
特朗普总统曾经做出承诺，借助一系列将美国放在首位、令其领先他国的政策，开创一个美国例外主义的时代。
But Mr. Trump’s moves in the early days of his administration have had the opposite outcome for the American stock market.
然而，特朗普政府执政之初的种种举措在美国股市产生了适得其反的效果。
The S&P 500, which for years had been soaring above the stock indexes of other countries, is now trailing major markets in Europe and China, as investors have started to pull money from the United States and reallocate it around the world.
标普500指数多年来一直远超其他国家的股指，现在却落后于欧洲和中国的主要市场，究其原因，是投资者开始从美国抽离资金，在全球各地重新布局。
Since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, the S&P 500 has fallen 6 percent, while the Dax index in Germany has risen 10 percent and the Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has gained more than 4 percent. Other U.S. indexes have fared even worse, as European markets have been buoyed by plans for military spending on the continent after Mr. Trump made it clear he wants those nations to do more to protect themselves.
自特朗普就职以来，标普500指数下跌了6%，而德国法兰克福股市DAX指数上涨了10%，欧洲斯托克600指数涨幅超过4%。其他的美国股指表现甚至更糟。特朗普明确表示希望欧洲国家在自我防卫方面加大力度后，欧洲大陆的军事开支计划提振了欧洲股票市场。
The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has soared further, rising more than 20 percent since Mr. Trump took office in January, driven by the Chinese government’s efforts to stimulate its economy. Mexico’s IPC index, which is domestically focused and proving resilient to Mr. Trump’s steep tariffs, is 5 percent higher.
香港恒生指数涨势更为强劲，自特朗普1月上任以来涨幅超过20%，这得益于中国政府刺激经济的举措。墨西哥以国内市场为重心的IPC指数不惧特朗普的高额关税上涨了5%。
With American markets being whipsawed by the uncertainties over Mr. Trump’s tariff policies and deep cuts to the federal government, investment advisers have started steering clients to other stock markets around the world.
由于特朗普关税政策的不确定性以及联邦政府大幅削减开支，美国市场剧烈波动，投资顾问已开始引导客户投资全球其他股市。
“It is definitely time to be looking at ex-U.S.,” said Jitania Kandhari, deputy chief investment officer of the solutions and multi-asset group at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. She said she had noticed an uptick in conversations with clients looking to increase their exposure to international stocks.
摩根士丹利投资管理公司的解决方案与多资产部门副首席投资官吉塔妮娅·坎达里表示：“现在绝对是时候将目光投向美国以外的市场了。”她表示，她已经注意到与希望增加国际股票投资的客户交流变多了。
Even global markets that have slumped have managed to outperform the S&P 500. The FTSE All-World index has dropped 2.9 percent since the inauguration, weighed down by U.S.-listed stocks. Canada’s TSX index has dropped 2 percent. And the Japanese Nikkei 225 has fallen 3.6 percent.
即使是出现下跌的全球市场表现也优于标普500指数。自特朗普就职以来，受在美国上市股票的拖累，富时全球指数下跌了2.9%。加拿大的TSX指数跌幅为2%，日本的日经225种股票平均价格指数跌幅为3.6%。
In recent weeks, Wall Street has sent out a raft of bank research notes, client presentations and trade ideas that recommend a pivot away from the United States.
最近几周，华尔街发布了大量银行研究报告、客户报告以及交易建议，均建议投资者将投资重心从美国转移出去。
“Respect resilience, fade U.S. exceptionalism, and worry about policy shocks,” read the title of one of those presentations from Bruce Kasman, chief economist and global head of economic research at J.P. Morgan.
摩根大通首席经济学家兼全球经济研究主管布鲁斯·卡斯曼所做的简报标题为《尊重韧性，淡化美国例外主义，警惕政策冲击》。
Brad Rutan, a market strategist at MFS Investment Management, said he also saw opportunities outside the United States. “It’s safe to say that there is plenty of room now for international equities.”
MFS投资管理的市场策略师布拉德·鲁坦表示，他也看到了美国以外的机会。“可以肯定地说，投资国际股票现在有很大的空间。”
Over the past week, investors pulled money from funds that buy U.S. stocks for the first time this year, according to weekly data that runs through Wednesday from EPFR Global. The withdrawal totaled a modest $2.5 billion, which compares with the roughly $100 billion inflow in the first nine weeks of 2025.
根据EPFR Global截至周三的每周数据，在过去一周，投资者年内首次从购买美股的基金中撤资。撤资总额不算多，仅为25亿美元，但2025年前九周的资金流入量约为1000亿美元。
While some traders are exceptionally quick to react to new information in the market, others, especially those that expect to be invested for a long time like pension funds or university endowments, can take months to move their money around.
尽管一些交易者非常快速地对市场上的新信息做出反应，但有些交易者，尤其是那些期望在养老基金或大学捐赠基金进行长期投资者，可能需要数月时间才能调整资金配置。
“After such a protracted outperformance of the U.S. versus Europe, these things can’t turn 180 degrees in a month,” said Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas. “There are probably many investors that have not reallocated yet.”
法国巴黎银行美国股票及衍生品策略主管格雷格·布特尔表示：“美国股市长期跑赢欧洲股市，这种情况不可能一个月里就出现180度的大转变。可能还有很多投资者尚未重新配置。”
If investors continue to pull their money from U.S. stocks and invest in foreign markets, it could add to the selling pressure that last week dragged the S&P 500 into correction, defined as a fall of more than 10 percent from its peak.
如果投资者继续从美股撤出并投资于外国市场，这可能会加大抛售压力，上周标普500指数进入了回调区间（较峰值下跌超过10%即被定义为回调）。
U.S. markets are so large that a complete exodus by foreign investors is near impossible, Ms. Kandhari said, “but the shift can definitely create market moves.”
坎达里表示，美国市场规模庞大，外国投资者完全离开是不可能的，“但是这种转变肯定会带来市场的波动。”
The recent withdrawal comes after years when the U.S. stock market was the envy of the world, attracting foreign investors looking for higher returns than their home markets could provide.
此次资金流出之前，多年来美国股市一直令全球羡慕，吸引着那些寻求比本国市场更高回报的外国投资者。
Roughly $420 billion flowed into funds that buy U.S. stocks in 2024, according to data from EPFR Global, helping lift major indexes higher and contributing to the growth of a handful of big technology companies. Roughly two-thirds of the valuation of the FTSE All-World Index comes from U.S. stocks, with nine of the top 10 stocks in the index by size coming from the United States.
EPFR Global的数据显示，2024年约有4200亿美元流入购买美股的基金，推动主要股指上涨，一些大型科技公司的股价上涨也部分得益于此。富时全球指数约三分之二的权重来自美股，该指数市值排名前十的股票中有九只来自美国。
In the year leading up to the presidential election, the S&P 500 outperformed many of the other indexes around the globe, rising 32 percent. The next best was Germany’s Dax, up 27 percent.
在总统大选前的一年里，标准普尔500指数表现优于全球许多其他指数，涨幅达32%。表现第二好的是德国法兰克福股市DAX指数，涨幅为27%。
Many investors are still bullish on U.S. stocks over the long term and believe they will again outperform foreign stocks.
从长远来看，许多投资者仍然看好美股，并相信它们将再度跑赢外国股票。
Europe may be ramping up government spending, potentially spurring growth. But that boom could be driven by a fear of war, not because of sustainable economic strength. And if the United States enters an economic downturn, the rest of the world is unlikely to be spared from the fallout.
欧洲可能正在加大政府支出，这可能会刺激经济增长。但是，这种繁荣可能是由于对战争的恐惧而驱动的，不是因为可持续的经济实力。而且，如果美国进入经济衰退，世界其他地方也不太可能不受影响。
“I think eventually all of this uncertainty settles down and we will still be left with a U.S. that has advantages that Europe and other countries don’t have,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
富国银行投资研究所全球市场策略主管保罗·克里斯托弗表示：“我认为最终所有这些不确定性都会平息下来，美国仍将拥有欧洲和其他国家所没有的优势。”
Other investors are wondering whether the current moment could be the beginning of an inflection point, upending the long-running trend of U.S. exceptionalism in financial markets.
有投资者希望知道，当前是否可能是一个拐点的开端，颠覆了金融市场中美国例外主义的长期趋势。
“I think that discussion is happening,” Ms. Kandhari said.
“我认为这种讨论已经开始了，”坎达里说。
