An ageing autocracy
威权下的老龄化
China’s high-stakes struggle to defy demographic disaster
中国抵御人口灾难的抗争事关重大
- defy “违抗、反抗、对抗”以及“蔑视、藐视”，即在权威、法律、规则等方面公开拒绝服从或表示尊重，常意味着敢于挑战被认为是不可战胜的力量或者敢于去做被认为是不可能做到的事情（参见：小词详解 | defy）
The Communist Party puts its faith in robots, gene-therapy and bathing services
党将信心寄托在机器人、基因疗法和助浴服务上
IF CHINA’S OLD people formed their own country, it would be the fourth most populous in the world, right behind America. This silver-haired state would be growing fast, too. China’s over-60 population sits at 297m, or 21% of the total. By 2050 those figures are expected to reach 520m and 38%. Yet demographers describe China’s future as greyer—and smaller. While its older cohorts are growing, younger ones are not (see chart). China’s total population declined for the second year in a row in 2023. Its labour force has been shrinking for most of the past decade.
如果让中国的老人组成一个国家，它将是世界上人口第四多的国家，刚好排在美国之后。这个银发国家的人口还会快速增长。中国60岁以上人口有2.97亿，占总人口的21%；到2050年预计将达到5.2亿和38%。然而，人口学家认为中国在未来不仅会更加老龄化，人口也更少。在老年人口增长的同时，年轻人口却没有增长（见图表）。2023年，中国总人口连续第二年下降。在过去十年的大部分时间里，其劳动人口一直在萎缩。
- demographer 人口统计学家
- cohort （有共同特点或举止类同的）一群人，一批人
China’s economy risks shrinking, too, as a result. With an enormous burden of care on the horizon, the government senses an impending disaster. To date its efforts have focused on boosting the fertility rate (average births per woman), which stands at 1.2—far below the 2.1 required to keep the population stable. Now, though, it is talking about adaptation. During his state-of-the-nation speech last month, the 64-year-old prime minister, Li Qiang, sketched out what he called a “vigorous national strategy” on ageing, covering everything from insurance to pensions.
因此，中国经济也有萎缩的风险。随着巨大的护理负担即将到来，中国政府感觉到一场灾难正在迫近。迄今为止，其工作重点是提高生育率（每名妇女的平均生育数量），中国的生育率为1.2，远低于保持人口稳定所需的2.1。不过，现在它谈论的是适应。在上个月的政府工作报告中，64岁的总理李强勾勒出“积极应对人口老龄化国家战略”，涵盖从保险到养老金的方方面面。
- on the horizon 引申指某个事物“已露端倪的、即将发生的”（参见：小词详解 | horizon）
- fertility 富饶；丰产；能生育性；可繁殖性；想象力丰富
- sketch 概述；简述
