经济学人双语精读:丹尼尔·卡尼曼,脑筋急转弯大师

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Daniel Kahneman was a master of teasing questions
丹尼尔·卡尼曼,脑筋急转弯大师

  • tease 取笑;戏弄;揶揄;寻开心

How a psychologist transformed economics
一位心理学家如何改变了经济学

WINNERS OF THE Nobel prize in economics tend to sprinkle their papers with equations. Daniel Kahneman, who died on March 27th, populated his best-known work with characters and conundrums. Early readers encountered a schoolchild with an IQ of 150 in a city where the average was 100. Later they pondered the unfortunate Mr Tees, who arrived at the airport 30 minutes after his flight’s scheduled departure, and must have felt even worse when he discovered the plane had left 25 minutes late. In the 1970s readers had to evaluate ways to fight a disease that threatened to kill 600 people. In 1983 they were asked to guess the job of Linda, an outspoken, single 31-year-old philosophy graduate.
诺贝尔经济学奖得主通常都会在他们的论文中加入一些公式。3月27日去世的丹尼尔·卡尼曼(Daniel Kahneman)则在他最著名的研究中加上了各种人物和谜题。在早期,读者会读到在一座孩童平均智商为100的城市里有一个智商高达150的学童。后来,他们又会读到倒霉的蒂斯(Tees),他在飞机原定起飞时间的30分钟之后才赶到机场,然而当他发现飞机是在延误了25分钟后起飞的,肯定就更难过了。在1970年代,读者要面对一种可能夺走600人性命的虚构疾病,在不同的治疗方案之间做选择。到了1983年,他们要猜一猜一位哲学专业毕业、直言不讳的31岁单身女性琳达从事什么职业。

Kahneman used such vignettes to expose the seductive mental shortcuts that can warp people’s thoughts and decisions. Many people, for example, think it more likely that Linda is a feminist bank-teller than a bank-teller of any kind. Presented with two responses to the disease, most choose one that saves 200 people for certain, over a chancier alternative that has a one-third chance of saving everyone and a two-thirds chance of saving no one. But if the choice is reframed, the decision is often different. Choose the first option, after all, and 400 people die for sure. Choose the second and nobody dies with a one-third probability.
卡尼曼用这样的小故事来揭示那些会扭曲人们思考和决策的诱导性心理捷径。例如,对于琳达是一名女权主义银行出纳还是就是一名银行出纳,许多人认为前者的可能性更大。当那种疾病的两个治疗方案摆在面前时,大多数人选择了肯定能挽救200人的方案A,而不选变数更大的方案B——它有三分之一的可能挽救所有600人,但有三分之二的可能一个人也救不了。但是,如果重新设定问题,人们往往又会做出不同的决定。毕竟,选了方案A,就一定会死400人。而选择方案B,就有三分之一的可能一个也不用死。

  • vignette (清晰展示人物特征、局势等的)短文,简介,花絮;(表演)片段,小品
  • seductive 有吸引力的;令人神往的