Crude awakenings
原油觉醒
- crude 表示“天然的、自然的、未加工的”，原用来形容粗面包或未鞣制的兽皮处于自然或未经处理的状态，现在则主要用来形容石油等自然物质处于原始未开发状态，尚未经人工加工或精炼过（参见：小词详解 | crude）
Oil’s endgame could be highly disruptive
石油的终局之战可能极具破坏性
The oil shocks of the future will be driven by demand, not supply
未来的石油危机将由需求而非供应驱动
FOR DECADES, the biggest fears about oil centred on its supply. The lesson was first learnt half a century ago, when the Arab members of OPEC banned exports to America and other supporters of Israel in the Arab-Israeli war. Today you might think that the link between energy and geopolitics has been mercifully severed. Even as war has returned to the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made it a pariah to the West, oil markets have been largely quiescent. In fact, however, a new phase is beginning—one in which oil demand, not supply, will be the primary influence on energy markets. This shift will bring with it profound geopolitical consequences.
几十年来，对石油最大的忧虑主要集中在其供应上。这个教训始于半个世纪以前，当时欧佩克（OPEC）的阿拉伯成员国对在阿以战争中支持以色列的美国和其他国家实施石油禁运。今天，你可能认为能源和地缘之间的联系已经被幸运地切断了。在中东战火重燃、俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后受到西方的排斥之时，石油市场大体上风平浪静。不过事实上，一个新的阶段已经开启。在这个阶段，影响能源市场的主要因素将是石油需求而非供应。这种转变将带来深远的地缘后果。
- pariah 引申指“社会弃儿、被社会遗弃者”，常用来表示不为社会所接受且人人都拒绝与之交往的隶属于某个群体的人，无论这种排斥是否合理（参见：小词详解 | pariah）
Governments everywhere are designing policies to reduce the demand for oil and boost alternative sources of energy, as they seek to fight climate change. Technologies such as those behind electric vehicles are only becoming cheaper and more advanced. The coming peak and subsequent decline of global demand for oil will determine prices and production over the decades to come.
为了应对气候变化，各国政府眼下纷纷制定政策以求减少对石油的需求，促进替代能源的发展。电动汽车等相关技术只会变得越来越便宜、越来越先进。全球石油需求将会达峰继而下降，这将决定未来几十年的油价和产量。
