Held in suspense
悬而未决
Do not expect America’s interest rates to fall just yet
先别指望美国的利率会下降
The risk of a second wave of inflation remains too great
第二轮通胀的风险仍然很大
HAS INFLATION been vanquished, or is it bouncing back? The question grips bond markets and governs the world’s economic prospects. At the turn of the year, after the Federal Reserve all but declared victory over America’s excessive price rises, bond yields collapsed in expectation of several interest-rate cuts. Today that bet looks premature. Over the past three months core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, have risen at an annual rate of 4%, up from 2.6% in the three months to August. Producer prices have risen more than expected and consumers’ expectations of inflation over the next year have gone up, too. Inflation is much lower than at its peak, but it has not yet been defeated. As a result, Treasury yields are roughly back to where they were before the Fed’s doveish turn. Yields on long-dated bonds are higher still.
通货膨胀是被征服了，还是在反弹？这个问题牵动着债券市场，也关系着世界经济的前景。岁末年初，在美联储近乎要宣布已经战胜了美国过高的物价上涨之后，债券收益率因人们预期会多次降息而暴跌。今天看来，这样下注似乎还为时过早。在过去三个月里，不包括食品和能源的核心消费者价格以年化4%的速度上涨，高于去年6月至8月的2.6%。生产者价格涨幅超过预期，消费者对明年通胀的预期也有所上升。通胀虽已远低于峰值，但尚未被击败。美国国债收益率随之又大致回到了美联储转向鸽派之前的水平。长期债券的收益率还要更高。
- vanquish 完全征服；彻底击败；战胜（参见：小词详解 | vanquish）
- premature 未成熟的；过早的；提前的
- exclude 不包括；不放在考虑之列
- doveish （新闻中指政治家或政府）温和派的，鸽派的
Inflation is also proving stickier elsewhere. The euro zone recorded large price rises in January, Swedish inflation rose in January and the Reserve Bank of Australia recently warned that inflation will take time to become “sustainably low and stable”. Everywhere, and especially in America, a resurgence of inflation threatens to delay cuts to interest rates.
事实证明，其他地方的通胀也更具粘性。欧元区在1月录得物价大幅上涨，瑞典的通胀在1月上升，澳大利亚央行最近警告说，通胀要“持续走低并稳定”还需要时间。在各个地方，尤其是在美国，通胀的回升都有可能导致推迟降息。
