Let the chips rise where they may
任芯片高飞
How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?
美国芯片制造复兴的实质如何?
As the CHIPS Act turns one, semiconductor firms have mixed feelings
《芯片法案》实施已有一年,半导体公司五味杂陈
- renaissance 文艺复兴(欧洲14、15和16世纪时,人们以古希腊罗马的思想文化来繁荣文学艺术);(某一学科或艺术形式等衰落后的)复兴
American chipmakers account for a third of global semiconductor sales. They design the world’s most sophisticated microprocessors, which power smartphones, data centres and, increasingly, artificial-intelligence (AI) models. But neither the American firms nor their Asian contract manufacturers make any such leading-edge chips in America. Given chips’ centrality to modern economies—and, in the age of AI, to war-fighting—that worries policymakers in Washington. Their answer was the CHIPS Act, a $50bn package of subsidies, tax credits and other sweeteners to bring advanced chipmaking back to America, which President Joe Biden signed into law on August 9th 2022.
美国芯片制造商占据了全球半导体销售的三分之一。它们设计了世界上最复杂的微处理器,驱动着智能手机、数据中心以及越来越多的人工智能(AI)模型。然而,无论是美国的芯片制造商还是它们的亚洲代工厂,都没有在美国本土生产一片这样的尖端芯片。鉴于芯片在现代经济中的核心地位,以及在AI时代对战争的重要作用,华盛顿的政策制定者对这种情况感到担忧。为此他们制定了《芯片法案》(CHIPS Act),试图通过提供500亿美元的一揽子补贴、税收减免和其他优惠措施,将先进的芯片制造带回美国。该法案于2022年8月9日由总统拜登签署成为法律。
On the surface, the law appears to be having an impact. Since 2020, when it was first floated, chipmakers have announced more than $200bn-worth of investments in America. If all goes to plan, by 2025 American chip factories (fabs, in the lingo) will be churning out 18% of the world’s leading-edge chips (see chart 1). TSMC, a Taiwanese manufacturing behemoth, is splurging $40bn on two fabs in Arizona. Samsung of South Korea is investing $17bn in Texas. Intel, America’s chipmaking champion, will spend $40bn on four fabs in Arizona and Ohio. As the chips Act celebrates its first birthday, and as the administration prepares to start doling out the money, both Democrats and Republicans, who agree on little else these days, regard it as a bipartisan triumph.
表面上看,该法案似乎产生了效果。自2020年该法案首次提出以来,芯片制造商宣布在美国的投资已超过2000亿美元。如果一切按计划进行,到2025年,全球18%的尖端芯片(见图表1)将出自美国本土的芯片工厂(行话叫晶圆厂)。代工巨头台积电正斥资400亿美元在亚利桑那州兴建两家晶圆厂。韩国三星将在得克萨斯州投资170亿美元。美国的芯片制造领军者英特尔将斥资400亿美元,在亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州兴建四座晶圆厂。在《芯片法案》迎来诞生一周年、同时也是美国政府准备开始发放补贴之际,如今鲜有共识的民主党人和共和党人认为这是两党的共同胜利。
- float 指“提出、提请考虑”某个想法或计划,供其他人考虑或测试人们的反应(参见:熟词僻义 | 你的公司 float 了没?)
- lingo 【美式英语】行话、术语
- churn 既可以表示“(粗制滥造地)大量生产、快速生产”,也可以表示“费力地做出”
- behemoth 指经济“巨头”,也就是规模庞大、实力雄厚的公司或机构,常意味着令人不快、效率低下或者难以管理(参见:小词详解 | behemoth)
- splurge 乱花(钱)、糟蹋(钱)、挥霍(参见:小词详解 | splurge)
- dole sth↔out (to sb) 发放,发给(食物、钱等);施舍
- bipartisan 由前缀 bi- (两个、两)+ partisan 构成,主要指“两党的、涉及两党的、为两党所拥护的”或“两派的、涉及两派的、为两派所拥护的”(参见:小词详解 | partisan )
- 拓展学习:本周《经济学人》封面用 triumph 谈莫迪胜选
Any triumphalism may, however, be premature. Leading-edge fabs being built in America are slower to erect, costlier to run and smaller than those in Asia. Complicating matters further, the chipmakers’ American investment binge comes at a time when demand for their wares appears to be cooling, at least in the short term. That could have consequences for the industry’s long-term profitability.
然而,任何必胜的论调恐怕都为时过早。相比于亚洲的晶圆厂,美国的尖端晶圆厂不仅建设速度慢、运营成本高,规模也相对较小。让情况更复杂的是,正当芯片制造商在美国大举投资之际,市场对芯片的需求似乎正在降温,至少短期内是这样。这可能会影响芯片行业的长期盈利能力。
- binge (短时间的)狂热行动,大吃大喝(参见:小词详解 | binge)