A surplus of anomalies
差异盈余
Is China understating its own export success?
中国是否低报了它的出口成就？
- understate 轻描淡写；避重就轻地说
The $230bn puzzle at the heart of the country’s trade figures
中国贸易数据的核心是一个2300亿美元的谜团
China’s current-account surplus was once one of the most controversial statistics in economics. The figure, which peaked at almost 10% of GDP in 2007, measures the gap between China’s earning and its spending, driven largely by its trade surplus and the income it receives from its foreign assets. For much of the past two decades, China’s surpluses have left it open to the charge of mercantilism—of stealing jobs by unfairly boosting its exports. Some trading partners now worry about a similar shock if the country’s output of electric vehicles grows too quickly.
中国的经常账户盈余曾经是经济学中最具争议的统计数据之一。这个数字衡量中国的收入和支出之间的差距，它在2007年达到峰值，几乎占到GDP的10%，这主要是受到中国的贸易顺差和从海外资产中获得的收入推动。在过去二十年的大部分时间里，中国的盈余让它被指责为重商主义——即通过不公平地促进出口来窃取就业机会。一些贸易伙伴现在担心，如果中国的电动汽车产量增长过快，可能会出现类似的冲击。
- boost 原义指从后面或下面推起或提高，现常用于指提高价格、振作精神等抽象概念
- mercantilism 重商主义，商业本位（认为商业可增加财富）
But China’s current-account surplus is now modest: $312bn or 1.5% of gdp over the past year, according to the country’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). That is below the 3% threshold that America’s Treasury deems excessive.
但是中国的经常项目盈余现在并不算高：按照国家外汇管理局的数据，去年中国的经常项目盈余为3120亿美元，占GDP的1.5%。这低于美国财政部认为过高的3%的门槛。
- threshold “阈、界、起始点”，主要指发生或表现出某种反应、现象、结果或状况而必须超过的程度或强度（参见：小词详解 | threshold）
Is the figure reliable? Some, such as Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations and Matthew Klein, a financial commentator, believe that the official numbers are dramatically understated. China’s true surplus, Mr Klein reckons, is now “about as large as it has ever been, relative to the size of the world economy”. They offer two arguments. First, China may be understating income from its foreign assets. Second, it may be understating exports.
这个数字可信吗？有些人，比如美国外交关系协会（Council on Foreign Relations）的布拉德·塞瑟（Brad Setser）和金融评论员马修·克莱因（Matthew Klein），认为官方数据是大大低报了。克莱因认为，中国目前的真实盈余“相对于世界经济规模而言和过去任何时候都差不多大”。他们提出了两个论据。首先，中国可能算少了其海外资产的收入。其次，它对出口的统计可能打了折扣。
